About 25 million migrant workers have left the cities for their rural villages, where all cannot find work. The pandemic could create 354 million new poor people.
It is estimated that 25 million migrant labourers from 64 districts, predominantly from the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha are returning to rural areas.The strong ‘push factors’ like unemployment and underemployment that contributed their migration into the cities are forgotten as they face a sense of insecurity, disowned by the very city they built. While they were in the city, they no doubt were able to earn money and support the education of the children back home, care and support the treatment of their aged parents, pay for house repairs and the wedding of their daughters. While a typical worker in rural areas earns Rs41,000 per year, the same worker can earn Rs98,000 per year in a city. Obviously, the ‘pull factors’ were equally strong, as most investments and infrastructure creation took place in urban areas, making it attractive because of better job opportunities.
India however lives in her villages: 70% of the population lives in the villages. The huge influx of people back to the villages will further burden the economy, which was already under stress due to underemployment and unemployment. There has been decline in the investment in the agricultural sector over the years. Some other policies like demonetisation and gradual shift from agriculture to manufacturing production played a role; the transition was taking its time to settle. Under these scenarios, the scope of absorbing returning migrant labourers will be very difficult, giving rise to a huge new poverty. It is said that the 71% of the total work force in India is in rural areas. One can only imagine the problem adding so many millions of them over and above them. The rural economy is predominantly agriculturally based and by its very nature lacks diversification, and so cannot absorb the new influx of labour. Though there is manufacturing and construction activities in the rural economy, they are too small to absorb the newly arrived labour.
While we all agree that there will be a new poverty, the debate is how many and how to count them. the International Labour Organisation claims (April 2020) “that about 400 million workers from India’s informal sector are likely to be pushed deeper into poverty due to Covid-19.” Many people in the cities, urban areas and semi-urban areas, who worked in the informal sectors, on a daily wage basis, or contractual basis, will lose their jobs. Some may lose permanently as they may not be able to resume their services. In a cash dependent economy like in urban areas, it’s very important to have cash in hand for survival. Poverty will be visible in both urban and rural areas. Drawing on the study by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) and Planning Commission data, Financial Express analysed and concluded that, “in summary, we can infer that due to Covid-19, (i) poverty will grow with India adding about 354 million more poor people and (ii) inequality will worsen.”
The consequences of this newly added poverty will be manifold. There will be serious implications on the education and health of the new poor. Children in urban areas pulled out of schools and taken back to the villages will seek admissions in the rural hinterlands. Migrants who lived in the cities, who got used to ‘comparatively’ better medical facilities will now find it extremely difficult to access treatment in rural areas. The rise in unemployment means more and more people approaching money lenders in agriculture and fulfilling other social and economic obligations. One can only anticipate a rise in violence, of petty crimes due to various reasons. We can expect a lot of land-related disputes and crimes; family-related issues like domestic violence, violence against women and children and human trafficking could be all on the rise.
There is fear of social stigma at least in initial stages that the returnees are carriers of the virus. This will add to the problems of existing social discrimination like caste system among people. There are reports of people being looked at suspiciously and denied access to villages and places of job opportunities.
The Government of India has announced many schemes for the different sectors in order to reach out to the poor. The government is going to spend 35 billion Indian rupees on food alone, which is a very welcome move. There is plan to register the migrant workers for various schemes and minimum wages. Direct bank transfers to farmers have been put in place. While all this is very good, we need to actually see how the people benefit from these schemes. It is too early to comment now.
Generating livelihoods, whether in rural or urban areas, is of paramount importance. Gainful employment for the poor, whether through self-employment or daily wage earning in an informal sector, any activity that brings cash for the poor, is required. It is cash that ultimately gives them purchasing power. In other words, there is lot of scope for skill development, training, and credit to create alternatives. All this should be regenerated on new terms and conditions based on the principle of equity and fair redistribution of resources. What was happening prior to COVID-19 was far from normal; it was injustice and oppression that was normalised or rather made to feel that it was normal. This has come as an opportunity in disguise to create an egalitarian society.
Agriculture plays a vital role in Indian economy, contributing 17% of the total GDP. The Church promotes sustainable agriculture, which in itself is very good, but without fora for producers to take care of the post production, issues like storage and price control, and dialogue between consumers and producers, it has little result.
The establishment and control of supply chain and prices by the poor is an urgent need. These measures will absorb more labour in the rural areas and largely minimise the ‘push factors’ in the villages. Migrant labourers who just returned or are on their way back home, are bringing a lot of skills, which should be retained in the rural areas as much as possible.
SOURCE: Asia News
