With the Taliban insurgency expanding, the US withdrawal could provoke a major humanitarian crisis.
News from Afghanistan is going from bad to worse. As of July 5, the Taliban have taken over 122 districts since May 1, according to analysis by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish think tank that closely tracks the insurgency. Afghan forces are surrendering military outposts, and the Taliban are seizing their weapons.
Meanwhile, with no respite from the violence, Afghans are fleeing. In the north, where the fighting has intensified this week, more than 56,000 people have been displaced in recent days, according to the United Nations. (In 2021, more than 205,000 people have been displaced across the country.) The U.S. troop withdrawal, now around 90 percent complete, is expected to exacerbate the conflict, setting the stage for a major refugee crisis.
After more than 40 years of war, refugee crises are sadly familiar for Afghanistan. There are nearly 3 million registered Afghan refugees worldwide, equivalent to around 1 in 10 of all refugees. But a perfect storm of factors suggests the next crisis could be especially acute: an emboldened and expanding insurgency, terrorist violence, the U.S. withdrawal, a fading peace process, and severe drought conditions to boot.
Those fleeing are likely to seek entry in Pakistan and Iran, already home to several million Afghan refugees each. In recent years, Tehran and, to a lesser extent, Islamabad have both sought to deport people back to Afghanistan due to the perceived economic and security costs of hosting them. The United Nations estimates around 585,000 “undocumented returnees” from Iran and nearly 7,000 returnees from Pakistan reentered Afghanistan this year.
Europe, via the Mediterranean Sea route, has become an increasingly popular destination for Afghan refugees, but European Union states have deported thousands of Afghans too. Increased fighting in northern Afghanistan means Central Asian states will also face influxes of refugees. On Monday, days after the Taliban seized the main border crossing with Tajikistan, more than 1,000 Afghan troops fled there. Civilians likely won’t be far behind.
In the event of a refugee crisis, many countries will face international pressure to accommodate Afghan refugees. But there will also be internal pressures not to admit them. In Pakistan, which is building a fence along its border with Afghanistan, a key suspect in a recent terror attack was revealed to be of Afghan origin this week. “We repeatedly say that Afghan refugees are our brothers and sisters, but the time has come for their dignified return,” Pakistani National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf said.
The least politically risky option for Afghanistan’s neighbours is to house refugees in facilities just across their borders, hoping the U.N. and aid groups will help finance them. EU states, and especially those that participated in the NATO mission, should also do their part to accommodate Afghan refugees. In recent years, they have deported them using the excuse they are economic migrants rather than war refugees. The country is now embroiled in full-scale civil war.
The looming crisis presents an opportunity for the Biden administration to back up its pledge to help restore U.S. global leadership. The United States should increase funding to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and related institutions to ensure Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asian states have the support they need to help Afghan refugees.
Washington—in concert with Kabul, Afghanistan’s neighbours, NATO countries, and international aid groups—should also push the Taliban to establish safe zones for people displaced inside Afghanistan. The best way to tackle a refugee crisis is to give people fewer incentives to leave. As the fighting mounts, this will admittedly become a hard sell. As Afghans continue to flee violence, they’ll need help—and quickly.
SOURCE: Foreign Policy
